Tag Archives: investment

Stock Market 2024: Potential Shifts and Opportunities Amid AI-Centric Market Cap

At halftime of 2024, the S&P 500 is up 14.48% YTD (source: Morningstar), driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and AI enthusiasm. A 29% annual gain for the market is not unheard of, so the second half might see a continuation. However, key risks remain, including valuation, breadth, and inflation. Perhaps a reversal occurs, taking back the 1st half’s gains. If so, valuation issues would likely resolve and improve 2025 performance. Bottom line, stock market returns are lumpy. Longer term, the return is consistently close to 10% (Source: Dimensional Matrix Book – Historical Returns Data).

Gains have been driven disproportionately by a few large tech companies associated with AI, so a diversified portfolio including international, small and midcap stocks, and even the 493 stocks in the S&P 500 that are not Nvidia, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon or Tesla, your performance is less than the S&P 500. These 7 stocks comprise more than 30% of the market cap weighted index. Hopefully the market will broaden as businesses adopting AI see upside potential.

Zoom Out

Time brings perspective, and now might be a good time to reflect on that. This month has been exhausting for investors. The damage is relative. If you invested last month and need to sell now, you might have a problem. But if you are a prudent investor with a 3 to 5-year time horizon, I think you’ll be just fine. This is normal volatility. For perspective, consider the following views of the S&P 500.

First, consider how you feel. The chart below shows a 5-day view. Pretty lousy, huh?

Next, we’ll zoom out to a 3-month view. Not much better.

Now let’s see how the index has done over the past 12 months.

As the above chart shows, it has been like a roller coaster, but it is still positive. Now let’s zoom out to the 2-year view. I think most investors would be pleased with the 29% gain they would have received from the SPY, an ETF that tracks the total return of the S&P 500 including dividends. These charts show just the index, excluding dividends.

Finally, here’s the 5-year view that shows the accumulation of retained earnings created by millions of people going to work every day. This is more like it. Now our scary stock market looks more like a not so uncommon speed bump along the way to greater prosperity.

Exhale and have a nice day!

Charts from Yahoo Finance. Past results are not guaranteed. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

The Oracle of Charlotte

It’s been eight years since the market hit bottom.  As Morgan Housel of The Motley Fool wrote, “If you went back to 2008 and predicted that over the following eight years the stock market would triple, unemployment would plunge to 1990s levels, oil prices would fall 80%, and inflation would stay tame even while interest rates stayed at all-time lows — I’m telling you, not a single person would have believed you.”

Ok, I didn’t say that exactly, but I got the part right that mattered most.  It was in December 2008.  I was onboarding a new client.  His portfolio was in cash equivalents.  I believed that while we were in the midst of a financial crisis, stocks were oversold compared to intrinsic value.  I told my new client that I believed he had a unique opportunity to triple his money in 5 to 8 years.  Few people are so fortunate as to find themselves with cash at the bottom of a market.

in April of 2009, he fired me.  My mistake was to buy equities in the last days of February, within a week of the absolute bottom.  In retrospect, my timing was nearly perfect, but he couldn’t handle it.  I called him a couple of years ago.  He told me firing me was the biggest mistake he ever made.  I’m guessing it hasn’t gotten any better for him.

Random Thoughts on Investing and Politics

Which way is the market going?  If you listen to the news, you will be a pessimist, since most news is negative.  But if you pay attention to quarterly earnings reports and long-term earnings trends, you will be an optimist.

Businesses are organizations of people who get up every day to create value for customers, with profits flowing to the owners of the company as the reward for their ingenuity and placing capital at risk.  If and when profits decline, the owners and management take corrective action.  In the extreme, they might liquidate the business to avoid further loss of capital, freeing capital and labor resources for redeployment in more productive enterprise.

In 1776, Adam Smith coined the term “Invisible Hand” in a book “An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations”.  In it he wrote, “Every individual necessarily labours to render the annual revenue of the society as great as he can. He generally neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it … He intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. Nor is it always the worse for society that it was no part of his intention. By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it. I have never known much good done by those who affected to trade for the public good.”

Government intervention often impairs the efficient deployment of resources and the creative destruction of inefficient enterprise.  Subsidies and taxes distort economic incentives and reduce the efficient allocation of resources.  The invisible hand is not an outdated classical concept.  It is the natural phenomenon that guides free markets.  Capitalism drives scarce resources to their most productive use.

Socialism short circuits the resource allocation process of capitalism, removing the invisible hand from sectors of the economy.  Without a profit motive, inefficiencies tend to grow unchecked.  While segments of society may be protected, you end up with a smaller pie.

The political pendulum swings between the left and the right.

On Raising the Fed Funds Rate

When you’re drinking beer, the goal can be to drink more.  That’s a problem for some people.  They do not recognize their disequilibrium.  Putting the glass down might not bring immediate gratification, but it is simply the right thing to do with any normal, long-term perspective.fredgraph Fed Funds Rate

The Fed needs to get off the sauce.  Current interest rates compromise reasonable capital allocation, and encourages uneconomic decisions.  The longer the distortion persists, the greater the risk.  Any investment decision that gets squeezed out because of a .25% interest rate increase, at current rates, was a bad idea anyway.  That represents net positive for the economy by discouraging inferior projects and speculation.

Interest rates are the cost of money.  It shouldn’t be virtually free.

Observations on Variable Annuities

A 64-year-old woman asked her financial advisor, “Why is the annuity a good idea?”  He replied that it gives her what she wants, a guaranteed income.  That is the key.  His approach solves problems by giving people what they want.  Wants are emotionally based.  Needs are comparatively fact-based.

Rather than pander to emotional desires, I try to convince clients to do what I would do if I were in their situation.  A fiduciary does not begin with the emotional component as the objective.

As interest rates increase over the next few years, it will be easier to generate income from a diversified portfolio.  While interest income will be taxed as ordinary income, capital gains and qualified dividends are currently taxed at lower rates.  Lower expenses, the step-up in basis for non-qualified (not in a retirement plan) assets, and access to a much wider investment universe are benefits of regular investing versus an annuity.

She is concerned about negative media. She believes everyone is expecting a market correction.  I responded that if most people are bearish, then that would be baked into prices already, reducing the risk of a correction.  Negative sentiment is healthy.  Exuberance is dangerous.  Markets are counter-intuitive, which explains why emotional investing is a bad idea.A Balanced Fund vs S&P 500

As reference, the above chart illustrates a popular, low-cost balanced fund (the blue, top line).  The 2000 – 2002 correction barely registers as a dip with the balanced fund.  The blue line shows that a 3 to 5-year reserve fund would have been sufficient to avoid selling at a loss during the 2008-2009 crisis.  The fund’s performance suggests that concerns referencing the last 2 major bear markets are more about the unknown than they are grounded in fact.  This is not unlike children being afraid of the monster under the bed.

The orange line below the blue line represents the S&P 500.  Investing in only the S&P 500 is not a good idea, but that seems to be the straw man argument many insurance companies use to sell annuities.

Finally, consider the commission.  How much is it and where does it come from?  This is not alchemy.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves the risk of principal.  The chart illustrates the performance of a popular balanced fund from January, 1999 to April 27, 2015.  The fund may hold up to a 75% equity allocation.  The chart is intended to illustrate the performance of a diversified portfolio relative to the S&P 500 during the 2000 – 2002 and 2008 – 2009 bear markets.  Diversification does not guarantee against loss.  The balanced fund is the Dodge and Cox Balanced Fund, and the data is from Morningstar.

Rearview Mirror

In December, 2008, a client transferred his account to my practice.  He was in cash.  I advised that he had a special opportunity to, in all likelihood, double his account in about 5 years by buying cheap stocks during a market panic.  I couldn’t convince him.  He was nervous.  Just when I thought I’d saved him from himself, he ordered me to sell everything I’d implemented, on March 6, 2009.  Perfectly bad timing.  C’est la vie.

Since the U.S. stock market hit bottom on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 Index had risen 248% as of the first quarter of this year. In little more than six years, the present bull market achieved third-place rank among the top 10 bull markets.

Bull Market Chart

 

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, since you cannot invest directly in an index.

How to Prepare for the Next Crash

First let’s define “Crash”.  To most, the term implies a decline of severe magnitude. A key question is the duration of the impairment, or how long might it take to recover?  Another consideration is stock market valuation.

By my observation, there hasn’t been a stock market crash in the US in the last hundred years that began with stocks at historically reasonable valuations that persisted more than 5 years.  The risk of a crash depends on valuation.  The average PE ratio in 1929 was about 60 times earnings. Fifteen or sixteen is widely considered average, and implies a 6.25% to 6.67% earnings yield.  That’s reasonable.  Today, the PE for the S&P 500 is was 18.94 on 9/26/2014 according to the Wall Street Journal, and that’s a little above normal.  It implies expectations that the economy and growth will continue to accelerate from the anemic post mortgage crisis recovery.

So how do you prepare, just in case?  The conventional approach to hedging the stock market is to incorporate bonds to a portfolio.  You own bonds for either of two reasons; either you need income, or you want to reduce the volatility of a portfolio.  Currently the ability of bonds to generate income is diminished by Fed policy.  While bonds may still provide some stability in the event of a crash, it is widely recognized that interest rates are likely to rise and that will reduce the value of outstanding bonds with fixed coupons.  Choose your poison.

An alternative strategy is to focus on the likely duration of a downturn in the stock market, and plan for expected liquidity needs for that amount of time.  A key benefit of financial planning is that it identifies liquidity needs.  During a period of low interest rates, one can substitute a reserve strategy, often called the Bucket Approach, to provide for anticipated liquidity needs for as long as a crash/correction might be likely to persist.  This frees the remainder of the portfolio for management with a longer time horizon, and with focus of fundamental metrics like valuation and macroeconomic factors.

The Benefits of Rebalancing

If stocks historically have higher returns than bonds, then selling stocks to buy bonds reduces portfolio returns over the long-term.  Conversely, for those with the fortitude to sell bonds and buy stocks when there’s blood in the streets, the process reverses.  The effect is more likely reduced volatility than increased returns.

I’d rather build a portfolio by planning for liquidity needs rather than putting the client’s emotional IQ in control of his asset mix by managing to control volatility.  Warren Buffett doesn’t rebalance.  I prefer to manage risk in the context of valuation.  That, I can control.