When you meet with a financial planner, you might expect to answer a series of questions designed to measure your risk tolerance. If you are a moderate risk investor, you’ll get a portfolio constructed to accept moderate volatility. If you are conservative, you’ll get a safe portfolio with limited growth potential. In other words, your emotional state dictates your investment strategy.
Emotional investing does not often lead to good outcomes. As an investor, I believe emotions can be your worst enemy. Evolution wired us as herd creatures based on the safety of numbers. Straying from the herd is dangerous. We seek affirmation, which leads to the tendency to buy high and sell low. According to research from Morningstar Inc., investors routinely underperform the funds they invest in. It is hard to make money doing what everyone else is doing, but we like to buy things after they’ve already demonstrated good performance.
Investing based on an assessment of emotional condition puts disposition at the forefront of investing strategy. This seems to be the way the financial planning profession approaches investment advice.
I believe that the most important aspect of financial planning is identification of goals and the liquidity required to fund those goals at the right time. Rather than build the portfolio around an emotionally based risk number, I suggest starting with a rational assessment of liquidity needs. The greatest risk is having to sell a security when the price is temporarily depressed, converting a temporary loss into a permanent loss. Let’s address that risk by planning for liquidity events. The remaining balance can be invested to maximize returns rather than pander to your emotional state.
Emphasize fundamentals like Warren Buffett. Make tactical adjustments based on fundamentals, and try to keep emotions out of the equation.